9 June 2012, The presence of Nertherlands and Denmark add must-win pressure to the other two big teams, Germany and Portugal, in their first match to pave an easy way to the next round.
Under normal circumstances, draw would be a satisfactory result for both team, however in the hardest group they need more. Netherlands will start earlier against Denmark, the under-dog in group B. If they win, the tension of the the match between Germany and Portugal 3 hours later in Lviv, Ukraine will be even greater. Any result except a win will negatively affect their chance of advancing to next round.
German defense's instability
To win, Germany needs to ensure that they score while shutting down Ronaldo, the Portugal's super star. Schweinsteiger's complete recover from injury is a good news for Germany's offense and ease off Joachim's worry over the mission to score. The 28 year old's presence plays a vital role, because he decides on the attacking pace of Germany. In the friendly match against Israel on 31st May, Germany showed that their midfield was somehow chaotic as Schweinsteiger was on the bench. The replacement, Tonis Kroos, only helped in terms of ball retrieving.
In the contrary, Germany's defense is not as stable as its offense. Loew admitted that Ronaldo is the biggest threat in their first match and to prevent him from scoring, he needs the best defense. However, in tomorrow match at Lviv, Germany might not have the service of Mertersacker, the veteran central defender was injured during the Wednesday training. If this happends, Loew will have to choose between moving Boateng from right to mid or use Dortmund player, Mats Hummels, to partner with Badstuber.
However, both options look quite risky. Hummels does not have the necessary experience and lost points in Loew's eyes after his performance in 3-5 loss against Switzerland. Boateng is a good replacement when partnering up with Badstuber, because they worked that way well in Bayern Munich. However without him on the right wing would pose a great threat where Germany has to face Ronaldo, who always starts on Portugal's left. Whether Lars Bender would be able to defense Germany's right wing is still questionable.
Portugal depends on Ronaldo
Portugal Euro's warm-up did not go so well as they lost one and drew one, and 1-3 on Turkey's home was alarming and can negatively affect player's morale.
Similar to the match against Turkey, the draw 0-0 with Macedonia saw the dominance of Portugal with a lot of ball possession and chances. Ronaldo, Nani, Almeida were unable to convert.
Meanwhile, their defense has deadly hole with the absent of Carvalho. Coentrao and Bruno Alves both made mistake in the match against Turkey, which resulted in the first two goals. Pepe was even worse as he gave away the third goal by an own goal.
With the poor performance, Portugal is the underdog of this match. But maybe that would be better off for them, as they do not have pressure like the previous two games. This is the opportunity for Nani, Pepe and especially Ronaldo perform well.
Prediction and Betting Tips
Prediction: 1-1
If the Portuguese plays to their strength, mind you they have one of the best attacking team in the world, it would be hard to say. If they play cautiously, Germany might take the game by 1 goal. However, we lean towards a draw. It seems 1-1 is again our prediction
Betting
Here are the major full time market offered by 36BOL. Germany is the team giving handicap, however the handicap was kept at minimum. You can bet at Asian handicap 0, 0.25 (0-0.5) and 0.5. Germany (-)0.25 at odds 0.900 seems to be an interesting bet as we think Gomez will score.
If Gomez performs, he might be the opener, therefore first goal bet looks like in the bag for Germany. 36BOL offers at odds 1.67 (Decimal). For more odds, picks and betting opportunites, visit 36BOL Sportsbook
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